Method

Reading evidence at three levels

An authentic medieval manuscript can prove that an accusation was circulating in 1150 without proving that the events took place. Every piece of evidence is therefore read at three levels.

1. A

   Authenticity of the source

   Is the document authentic, forged, or of uncertain authenticity?

2. B

   Content of the document

   What exactly does the author state? In what context, and for what purpose?

3. C

   Probative value

   What does the document actually demonstrate about the claim under examination?

The statuses

• Established

  Attested by reliable, concordant sources; no reasonable doubt.

• Strongly supported

  The evidence clearly converges, with some limits.

• Plausible but uncertain

  Likely, but the sources do not allow a firm answer.

• Not demonstrated

  No reliable evidence establishes it; yet not every scenario can be ruled out.

• Contradicted by the evidence

  The available evidence points the other way.

• Refuted

  Solid, positive evidence shows it is false.

• Undetermined

  Open question: the sources do not allow an answer.

Our rules

• Absence of evidence is never confused with evidence of absence: a 'Refuted' status requires positive evidence.
• Sources do not all weigh the same: the assessment is proportionate to their real probative value, not to a show of balance.
• Several copies of the same story are not several witnesses: dependencies between sources are displayed.
• A resemblance between two stories is not a lineage: the map distinguishes links proposed by historians from mere similarities.
• No quotation, page or archive is invented. External links are only shown once checked, with the date of the check.
• Generated illustrations, if any, are always labelled as reconstructions.
• Every conclusion is dated and keeps its history: you can see why it changed.

Source verification status

• Verified : 7
• Partly verified : 7
• To be verified : 3